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CPI – June 27th, 2024

27 Jun CPI – June 27th, 2024

Posted at 15:54h in Blog by
 
 
 

Weekly Digest

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June 27th, 2024

 

Partner Trip for 2025

April (Spring) 2025, our annual realtor trip will be held in Nashville, Tennessee.

Qualifying is easy. Send $1,500,000 in total closed mortgage business to automatically qualify.

 

CPI Release

The July cut may now be on shaky ground. Headline inflation jumped up to 2.90% (up from 2.70%). Forecasts were to see a small decrease to 2.60%. This over shot expectations.

There were upside surprises in several components, although some are unlikely to be repeated, such as the 2.4% jump in travel services, 0.5% rebound in food prices and the larger 0.9% m/m jump in rents. The good news was that, despite the latter, shelter prices rose by a softer 0.4% m/m, thanks to the softest gain in mortgage interest costs since the Bank’s earlier hiking cycle began.

That is a step backward and increases the chance of the Bank pausing at its July meeting, but there are several more key data releases before then that could sway the Bank’s thinking. Stay tuned for more info over the next 30 days.

Prices accelerated for transportation (3.5% vs 3.1% in April), lifted by a 4.5% increase in air transportation prices. Inflation was also higher for food (2.5% vs 2.4%) amid higher grocery costs (1.5% vs 1.4%), the first acceleration since June 2023. Additionally, costs rose faster for health and personal care (3.6% vs 3%) and fell to a smaller extent for household operations, furnishings, and equipment (-1.5% vs -2.1%). While refraining from increasing, inflation remained high for shelter (6.4%).

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar is $.7311 this morning.  This is great news for July 24th (next BoC meeting).  After June’s cut, there was concern about the CAD $.  

Now would be a good time to purchase US money for your future vacations.

 

\Housing Market Looking for Momentum

House prices fell by 0.2% m/m in May, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline and taking the total fall since August 2023 to 4.8%.

Sales once again disappointed, falling by 0.6% m/m, while new listings rose by 0.5%.

New construction continues to be hit the hardest as unsold inventory is rising.

Q1 pre-con sales were the worst every recorded since the global financial crisis. This was 30% worse than the quarter in 2009.

Worth noting the GTA population was almost 20% lower in 2009…

This is coupled with the below..

 

Current Interest Rates

CONVENTIONAL

  • 5 year fixed, 30 yr amortization – 5.04%

  • 3 year fixed, 30 yr amortization – 5.14%

  • 2 year fixed, 30 yr amortization – 6.00%

  • 5 year variable, 30 yr amortization – Prime – 0.90% = 6.05%

  • 5 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.99%

  • 3 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 5.09%

  • 2 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 5.95%

  • 5 year variable, 25 yr amortization – Prime – 0.95% = 6.00%

 

INSURED

  • 5 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.69%

  • 4 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.74%

  • 3 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.84%

  • 5 year variable, 25 yr amortization – Prime – .95% = 6.00%

 

Fast Facts

  • 11,705 – Number of Canadians over 100 years old last year, over triple the number of centenarians the country had in 2000.

  • 4,349 – The number of books banned across 23 U.S. states and 52 public school districts in the last six months of 2023. Book bans across U.S. public school libraries have spread at an unprecedented rate.

  • 3,300 – The age of a ship found at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, 90 km off the coast of Israel.