Partner Trip for 2025

April (Spring) 2025, our annual realtor trip will be held in Nashville, Tennessee.

Send $1,500,000 in total closed mortgage business to automatically gain your spot on the trip. To date, we have 7 realtors who have already qualified.

0.50% Cut Likely A One Off

Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 0.50% today, the accompanying communications were more hawkish than might have been expected. The Bank is no longer indicating that further cuts are guaranteed and instead noting that it “will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.” That is largely because the 0.50% cut means we are now at the top end of the Bank’s 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate.

The consensus of economists was close to evenly split about the prospects for either a 0.25% or 0.50% cut this time last week, but markets moved firmly in favour of another 0.50% move. This takes the the policy rate to 3.25% after the surprise surge in the unemployment rate in November. More on this via the chart below.

Contrary to most expectations, the Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) rallied 0.27% to 70.77 cents on the assumption future cuts will be more muted.

The next rate announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, January 29, 2025.

Canada Job Numbers

One of the major reasons for today’s 0.50% drop is the continuing weakening of our economy.

Canada’s employment numbers paint a bleak picture.

• Jobs created: 51k (est: 25k | prior: 15k)

• Unemployment: 6.8% (est: 6.6% | prior: 6.5%)

• Avg hourly wages: 3.9% for permanent employees (prior: 4.9%)

Employment growth hit a seven-month high, fueled by full-time government hiring. Meanwhile, unemployment climbed to levels we haven’t seen since 2017. Although, that 6.8% rate is mainly a function of population growth as we have more people looking for work and not as much direct job loss.

The most troubling stat? Full-time job losses for those >25 years old shot up by 63,000 to an all-time high.

U.S.A Job Numbers

• Jobs created: 227k (est: 200k | prior: 36k)

• Unemployment: 4.2% (est: 4.1% | prior: 4.1%)

• Avg hourly earnings: +0.4% m/m (est. +0.3%)

These numbers are impressive, and the Fed is trying to cool the US economy.

Markets still believe the Fed is on course for a 0.25% cut next week.

U.S.A Inflation Numbers

U.S. CPI showed no progress today:

• Headline and core inflation hit the analysts’ mark at +0.3% m/m

• Year-over-year inflation accelerated to 2.7% (est. 2.7% | prior: 2.6%)

What’s Next?

Here are the latest next-meeting odds:

• For the Bank of Canada meeting on January 29:

  • 0.25% cut: 56% chance

  • No change: 44% chance

• For the Federal Reserve meeting on December 18:

  • 0.25% cut: 98% chance

  • No change: 2% chance

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Current Interest Rates

CONVENTIONAL

• 5 year fixed, 30 yr amortization – 4.54%

• 3 year fixed, 30 yr amortization – 4.44%

• 2 year fixed, 30 yr amortization – 5.74%

• 5 year variable, 30 yr amortization – Prime – 0.50% = 4.95%

• 5 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.54%

• 3 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.44%

• 2 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 5.64%

• 5 year variable, 25 yr amortization – Prime – 0.60% = 4.85%

INSURED

• 5 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.24%

• 4 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.49%

• 3 year fixed, 25 yr amortization – 4.14%

• 5 year variable, 25 yr amortization – Prime – .90% = 4.55%

Fast Facts

• 7.9% – Calgary’s unemployment rate last month, well above the national rate of 6.8%. The high unemployment numbers have been driven by a surge in migration to the city.

• 19 – Months that the average Torontonian will spend on public transit in their lifetime, according to a new study. The average commute time in the city is 55 minutes one way.